Sharing Nassim Taleb’s ideas about virus models with kids

I saw a great Twitter thread on virus spreading models from Nassim Taleb last week. I’d been meaning to share the ideas in the thread with my kids but didn’t get around to it until today.

The original thread is here:

The tweet I wanted to focus on specifically is here:

Screen Shot 2020-03-18 at 6.49.07 PM

So, tonight I used the code that Taleb shared and talked through the graphs with the boys. At the end we talked a bit about why Taleb’s conclusion was that these models were unreliable for decision making.

Here’s how my younger son reacted to the graphs:

Here’s how my older son reacted to Taleb’s graphs:

I think talking through some of Nassim Taleb’s ideas is a great way for kids to get some insight into how to think about the virus spread and also to see some of the dangers / limitations of modeling. For today’s project the important lesson is when you don’t know with any certainty how the models work, you really need to proceed with maximal caution.

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