Sharing Problem 10 from Mosteller’s 50 Challenging Problems in Probability with my younger son

Today my older son is at an event, so the project was just with my younger son. The project is a version of a famous problem attributed to Daniel Ellsberg (Mosteller’s book also credits Ellsberg). Here’s the Wikipedia page on the more famous problem:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellsberg_paradox

I got start with today’s project by reading the first problem and having my son share his initial thoughts about how to approach solving it:

With some thoughts down on the white board, now we turned to solving the problem. I loved his thought process here:

Next we moved on to problem attributed to Ellsberg – this gives problem is a fun twist on the first problem since now you do not know how many balls of each color are in the bag:

With my son having written down a few ideas about the new problem in the last video, he now gave his solution to the 2nd problem. His thinking here is also really great. It is fun to see young kids talk through a difficult problem like this one:

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